TAMIU's Texas Center Releases Comprehensive Analysis of North American Trade Integration
The Texas A&M International University (TAMIU) A. R. Sanchez, Jr. School of Business Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development (TCBEED) has released a comprehensive analysis examining North American trade integration and the potential impacts of proposed tariffs on employment across 15 key states.
The study, “North American Trade Integration at Risk: Analysis of Employment Impacts from Proposed Tariffs," is authored by TCBEED director Dr. Daniel Covarrubias and program manager Heleodoro Lozano. It continues the Center's tradition of producing economic research that helps inform cross-border trade and transportation policy discussions and business planning across North America.
"This analysis reflects our commitment to understanding the complex dynamics of continental economic integration," said Dr. Covarrubias, "We've developed methodologies that allow us to quantify and analyze the deep interconnections that have evolved over three decades of regional cooperation, and how these might respond to policy changes."
The research examined 15 states representing diverse economic profiles: agricultural regions, manufacturing centers, states with diversified economies and traditional border states. In the context of proposed tariffs, the study found that approximately 4.3 million jobs are exposed to North American trade networks, with the manufacturing sector accounting for 3.7 million jobs and the agriculture/mining sectors showing connections to about 633,000 jobs.
"The scale of integration is remarkable," Dr. Covarrubias noted, "North America has evolved into a continental market that commands 30% of global GDP, processes $3.5 million in cross-border commerce every minute, and generates $1.8 trillion in annual intra-regional trade."
The research analyzes states representing diverse geographic regions and economic profiles, including California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.
"By examining both trade flows and employment patterns, we've created a comprehensive analysis of how deeply integrated these economies have become," Dr. Covarrubias explained, "States like Texas, with over 805,000 jobs exposed to cross-border trade, and Michigan, with about 672,000 jobs, demonstrate how this integration extends well beyond the border region."
The study combines detailed trade flow analysis with current employment data to create state-by-state profiles of economic integration and employment exposure. The research team developed multiple scenarios to help policymakers and business leaders understand potential trade adjustments under the proposed tariffs.
"Our findings show significant impacts across regions," noted Dr. Covarrubias, "From the Great Lakes manufacturing belt to agricultural states like Minnesota, where trade integration is approaching 88% in certain sectors, the data reveals how thoroughly North American commerce has become part of state economies, and how employment is exposed to trade impacts."
This analysis represents the latest contribution from the TCBEED, which has established itself as a leading source for research on North American economic integration. The Center's work provides valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and academic researchers studying cross-border trade patterns and their impacts.
The report is available for download at: http://texascenter.tamiu.edu/PDF/PRESENT/2025-TariffImpactAnalysisOnStateEmployment.pdf
For more about the TCBEED and its research initiatives, please visit http://texascenter.tamiu.edu, email Dr. Covarrubias at dcova@tamiu.edu, or call 956.326.2520.
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